The War in the Strait, the Shift in the Grid: Why Americans Are Reconsidering Renewables and EVs
And what you can do help shift EV norms and policy
I kept reading newspaper articles about the shift in energy policy toward renewables as a result of the Iran War. So I looked for solid evidence. The best data I found was for EV sales. I speculate on how EV sales as a result of the war are shifting norms, which will force policy change. Despite Trump’s desperate attempts to will away the renewable energy transition, his war may be the death knoll for fossil fuels and coal.
A Pew survey conducted in March of this year revealed some disturbing findings about Americans’ declining support for renewable energy. Just six years ago, 79% of Americans thought the US should expand wind and solar. In 2026, only 57% supported renewable energy development. Meanwhile, support for fossil fuel development more than doubled, from a mere 20% of Americans supporting oil and gas in 2020 to 42% this year. While this shift has been overwhelmingly driven by changes in Republicans’ attitudes, even among Democrats, support for renewables declined from 91% to 83%, while approval of fossil fuels doubled from 8% to 17%.
The Iran War: Good for Coal or Good for Renewables?
The survey was conducted just a couple of weeks after the US-Israeli bombing campaign began killing Iranians and destroying their cities. Americans were not yet feeling sticker shock at the pump. Yet now, two months into the war and without an end in sight, analysts are predicting that more Americans will move toward renewables and away from a fuel so dramatically impacted by the latest Middle East conflict. Gas price pain in America is obviously trivial compared to what’s happening to Iranians. But the surge in gas prices — to above $4 a gallon across most of the US —will likely have more influence than the war’s body count in moving US policy away from oil and gas.
In fact, the news is filled with commentators claiming that the longer the war lingers, the more Americans will turn away from fossil fuels. But we also hear that the US is ramping up its natural gas exports. In China, the Philippines, and other countries where nearly all gas is imported from the Middle East, governments are ramping up renewables development but also the use of coal. So will the world turn back to coal or transition to renewables?
No one knows for sure, but people around the globe are increasingly signaling their readiness to end our love affair with fossil fuels. Whereas gas and coal once offered security, reliability and affordability, they now offer none of the above. About five years ago, solar became cheaper than coal and gas. As renewable energy prices continue their steep decline, weaning ourselves off fossil fuels becomes ever more likely. This is a win for the consumer seeking lower energy prices. It is a win for the climate, as it reduces fossil fuel emissions. It could also help us avoid a future Middle East War.
“No world leader is going to want to be held accountable to the Middle East, to Vladimir Putin, to Donald Trump, for their energy supply. Sunlight has to travel 93 million miles to reach the Earth. But none of those miles are through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Climate activist and scientist Bill McKibben
Renewables Now Cheaper than Fossil Fuels
Not only in launching the war, but also in energy policy, President Trump and his administration are comically — and dangerously — out of sync with the rest of the world. In 2024, renewables made up 92.5% of all new power, and last year, renewables supplied 34.3% of global electricity, for the first time surpassing coal’s 33.1%. Yet US Energy Secretary Chris Wright proclaimed: “I’m pretty confident coal will lead the world in global electricity production when I die.” He echoes the president, who has called clean energy a “scam,” a “joke,” and “stupid.”
The Trump administration is definitely not listening to Fatih Birol, the world’s leading energy economist. Birol says that as a result of the Iran war, countries are losing trust in fossil fuels, which they see as broken.
“There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future… The vase is broken, the damage is done – it will be very difficult to put the pieces back together. This will have permanent consequences for the global energy markets for years to come.”
Fatih Birol, Executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA)
Climate and renewable energy activists Bill McKibben and Jigar Shah are optimistic about the transition from our shattered fossil fuel system to renewable energy. They point to the exponential growth of solar and wind, spurred most recently by advances in battery technology. Trump’s fixation on the lights going off when the wind dies down has become a lingering figment of his imagination. Technologies, many of which were developed at what once were US government-supported labs, and then brought to scale in China, mean that renewables are cheaper than coal and gas.
“We used to think of “alternative energy” as the Whole Foods of energy… It’s now the Costco of energy.”
Bill McKibben, climate scientist and activist
Are Americans Already Buying More EVs?
If the Pew poll were repeated today, two months into the war, would Americans feel differently about a fossil fuel future? Evidence that norms are changing comes from the EV market. While new EV sales declined 24.7% last year, they rose 20.2% in March and now account for 5.9% of total new car sales. The biggest jump was in used EV sales, which leaped 27.7% from last year and an astounding 53.9% over February.
Even the NY Times has jumped on the EV bandwagon. For those of you contemplating buying or leasing an EV, check out their April 15th article: “11 Electric Cars Worth a Look With Gas Prices High.”
The US isn’t the only country feeling the price pain. Indeed, other countries are much harder hit as they are more dependent on Middle Eastern oil. They are already looking to China — by far, the dominant solar and EV producer globally — to boost renewable energy supplies. Chinese clean energy exports doubled between February and March of this year, reaching $22 billion, as demand for solar panels and batteries surged.
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Will the War in the Middle East Change US Energy Norms?
I imagine that when the Pew pollsters interviewed Americans, the gravity of the war’s impact on pump prices had not yet settled in. Perhaps the Republicans polled were still under the spell of Trump touting the wonders of coal and gas. A strong leader can influence attitudes. But citizens can also influence leaders.
When what we are told doesn’t jive with what we are seeing with our own eyes, a leader loses his influence. Social norms — those beliefs we think our fellow Americans hold — can shift. If we see more and more people driving EVs, then we begin to see EVs as the accepted behavior – the norm. If we see more solar panels, this also becomes the norm.
We have seen shifts in norms over and over again — for example, in how we might have initially felt self-conscious bringing our own bag to the grocery store, but now most of us do it automatically. Although some politicians remain entrenched in culture wars and stuck in the glory days of fossil fuels, others will see their constituents moving toward renewables and will move along with them. Politicians will be hard-pressed to vote against expanding EV charging infrastructure once enough of their constituents need a plug-in rather than a gas pump.
The transition is not just in cities and suburbs, but also in rural red communities where there is a fear of more local suicides as farmers are driven to desperation by high fertilizer and fuel prices, along with tariffs that have decimated the Chinese market for their soybeans. Here, Bill McKibben predicts, cheaper solar and batteries will trump the arguments for expensive fossil fuels.
I’ll be looking for the next Pew poll, and watching the news and my neighbors, to see if renewable energy and EV norms — and policies — continue to shift. I invite you to watch with me. Let me know what you are seeing in the comments.
TAKE ACTION!
Game shows can demonstrate that EVs are a viable, mainstream option, and help EVs to become the norm. Here are two petitions you can sign asking game show hosts to give EVs instead of gas cars as prizes.
Tell the Wheel of Fortune to reward winners with EVs not gas cars.
Urge the Price is Right to reward winners with EVs not gas cars.
State leaders may need help understanding that EVs are becoming more and more affordable for the average constituent.
Tell your state representatives that EVs are the affordable choice.
Lack of charging stations is a big hindrance to people buying or leasing EVs. Here is a letter asking state officials to ramp up charging infrastructure.